Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.125872 0.138771 0.151975 0.166474 0.181918 0.197850 0.215500
2024-12-15 0.103228 0.122415 0.143025 0.166685 0.192970 0.221153 0.253531
2024-12-22 0.084402 0.107149 0.132687 0.163178 0.198286 0.237149 0.283122
2024-12-29 0.075212 0.101189 0.131449 0.168745 0.212917 0.263025 0.323612
2025-01-05 0.067225 0.095459 0.129476 0.172606 0.224952 0.285583 0.360249
2025-01-12 0.060099 0.089848 0.126847 0.174986 0.234711 0.305167 0.393324
2025-01-19 0.053487 0.084110 0.123381 0.175744 0.242042 0.321573 0.422516
2025-01-26 0.052348 0.085408 0.128747 0.187542 0.263040 0.354651 0.472057
2025-02-02 0.047899 0.081692 0.127169 0.190119 0.272279 0.373280 0.504141
2025-02-09 0.044434 0.079004 0.126671 0.193873 0.282870 0.393547 0.538325
2025-02-16 0.040086 0.074607 0.123477 0.193733 0.288210 0.407118 0.564203
2025-02-23 0.038957 0.074914 0.126769 0.202335 0.305024 0.435323 0.608606
2025-03-02 0.037646 0.075026 0.130030 0.211354 0.323098 0.466106 0.657610
2025-03-09 0.034068 0.071245 0.127434 0.212101 0.330121 0.482819 0.689109
2025-03-16 0.029632 0.065616 0.121730 0.208140 0.330554 0.490884 0.709603
2025-03-23 0.028225 0.064961 0.123457 0.214821 0.345613 0.518257 0.755236
2025-03-30 0.026461 0.063502 0.123810 0.219426 0.357800 0.541933 0.796293
2025-04-06 0.024474 0.061431 0.123040 0.222256 0.367464 0.562293 0.833175
2025-04-13 0.022282 0.058742 0.121086 0.223157 0.374314 0.578873 0.865186
2025-04-20 0.022757 0.061204 0.127625 0.237091 0.399954 0.621099 0.931437
2025-04-27 0.021181 0.059480 0.127109 0.240131 0.409934 0.642133 0.969758
2025-05-04 0.019971 0.058361 0.127519 0.244552 0.421920 0.665978 1.011989
2025-05-11 0.018108 0.055681 0.125089 0.244388 0.427133 0.680511 1.041828